Consumer segmentation: Research from the Henley Centre and Marks and Spencer

Many companies selling to UK families have a strong sense that consumer demands are shifting rapidly. M&S recently talked to Carbon Commentary about its perceptions of changes in attitudes and behaviour. This article compares its results with those of a survey by the Henley Centre in summer 2007. During the last year or so, the percentage of 'green zealots' in M&S research has risen from 3-4% to nearer 8%. Henley also sees a figure of 8% for the two greenest groups 'principled pioneers' and 'vocal activists'. A further 31% (Henley Centre) or 30-35% (M&S) are actively concerned and want to adjust their behaviour. There has also been a big growth in this group in the last year.

In both surveys another third are aware of environmental and ethical issues, but are unlikely to take active steps unless pushed. A final quarter or so don't care very much. M&S says that they are 'struggling'. Henley calls them 'disengaged'.

Read More

Domestic Combined Heat and Power

Ceres Power, a £150m AIM-listed company, recently demonstrated its new Combined Heat and Power product. This power plant is targeted at ordinary domestic homes. Combining an efficient central heating boiler with a fuel cell that converts gas to electricity, the new product has excited the City. Ceres is extremely optimistic about sales of the device, based on the cash and carbon dioxide savings it says can be achieved.

The Ceres fuel cell (on the left) is incorporated into an ordinary domestic condensing boiler (on the right)

Ceres promises reductions in utility bills of £300 a year and 2.5 tonnes savings in carbon dioxide for the typical UK house. Our short report shows why we think that these savings are unlikely even in the most appropriate UK installation. In fact, the emissions reductions are likely to be minimal and the reductions in the electricity bill will not easily justify the approximately £1,000 extra cost of the CHP cell.

Micro CHP is a difficult proposition. Other companies have found that it is hard to make substantial savings in domestic installations. CHP is not well suited to rapidly fluctuating and unpredictable demand for electricity and hot water.

Read More

Geo-engineering

Some scientists think that the world's halting attempts to reduce carbon emissions are bound to fail. So they have proposed various schemes for counteracting the global warming impact of fossil fuels. The Gaia scientist James Lovelock proposed an unusual and untested idea in a recent paper. He suggested that we install millions of pipes to bring nutrient-rich water to the surface to feed carbon sequestering organisms. Other scientists are working on schemes as diverse as mirrors that reflect part of the sun's energy, increased aerosol pollution to stop sunlight getting to the earth, and improving plankton growth by adding iron to the oceans. All these schemes are 'offsets'; they seek to counter-balance the impact of human activities with schemes to reduce CO2 elsewhere. The technology optimists believe that one or more of these techniques can completely counteract human effects. The cost often seems very reasonable – in the billions rather than the trillions – and the technological challenges seem not insuperable. The pessimists say these schemes will have huge unintended effects, possibly worse than climate change itself, and that toying with 'geo-engineering' projects, as they are called, simply delays the day that the world starts to realise it must cut fossil fuel use. Geo-engineering deals with the symptoms, not the causes, of global warming. And none of the proposed schemes deal with the adverse effects of higher CO2 concentrations, such as increased ocean acidity.

This article argues that all the major geo-engineering proposals have substantial pitfalls, but that it makes clear sense to increase the research funding into these schemes. The opponents and proponents of geo-engineering have got locked into an almost theological debate as to the ethics of climate modification but this argument should be secondary to the need to have well-defined back-up plans in the event of increasingly rapid deterioration of the global climate.

Read More

The eco-homes at Bladon, near Oxford

New UK housing has insulation standards that do not come close to matching the best northern European levels. Individual homeowners and ethical investors have built single 'eco-homes' but a small new development in Bladon, Oxfordshire is among the first to be speculatively built by a mainstream housebuilder. The new houses are not 'zero-carbon' and do not use the Passiv Haus technologies pioneered for low-emissions housing in Germany. But they are a substantial improvement on most mass-produced homes. Will they make the builder more money? No, says the company, but the experience it has gained will enable it to build eco-homes at a more competitive price in the future. These nine houses each cost over £40,000 more than their draughty Persimmon equivalents. The builder expects the price premium to be slightly less.

Read More

Straws in the wind: The Lib Dems' climate change paper

Both the Conservative and Lib Dem parties have produced position papers on climate change in the last few weeks. The Conservative document is over 500 pages long but contains very few specific proposals. To be harsh, it is little more than a prolonged agonising over whether the climate change problem can be addressed using conventional free-market mechanisms. The Lib Dem paper is a tenth of the length but does contain the outlines of a coherent set of policies. This article analyses the Lib Dem proposals. It shows that the Lib Dems are prepared to use the price mechanism to choke off increasing demand for aviation. The party also contemplates extending the Emissions Trading Scheme beyond the 50% of the economy currently covered. On the other hand, it makes completely clear that it has no intention of raising the prices of energy and fuels to domestic consumers.

Although the party presents itself as the only UK political institution ready to grasp the need for an economy-wide carbon price that will bring down emissions by 30% in 2020, the detailed proposals are far less radical. In the material that follows, I try to tabulate the Lib Dem ideas, focusing on whether they use price, regulatory fiat or pious hope as the proposed means of emissions reductions. As in the Conservative paper, estimates of the costs and benefits of their policies are almost completely absent from the Lib Dem paper. It is a shocking commentary on British politics that no major party is prepared to quantify exactly how it proposes to shift taxes towards polluting activities and away from other sources.

Read More

Tesco vs. Wal-Mart vs. carbon emissions

The rivalry between Tesco and Wal-Mart is well known. Tesco's imminent entry to the US heartland of the world's largest retailer may have created an extra edge to the battle. And, unsurprisingly, the two giants are squaring up over carbon issues as well as over such things as employee conditions and global sourcing policies. Tesco said earlier this year that it would eventually put carbon labels on all its 70,000 food lines. It has been trying to find way of doing this using Life Cycle Analysis, putting a greenhouse gas cost on every element of a product's move from farm to plate. This was always a hugely over-ambitious project and recent weeks have seen the company drift back from its early optimism. Now Wal-Mart has come up with a similarly impossible dream – to use the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) to assess and manage the energy footprint of its suppliers. These big retailers know that they have to be seen to be doing something about greenhouse gases, so they have both launched incomplete schemes that will achieve little.

Read More

British Gas's new Zero Carbon tariff

British Gas has launched a consumer gas and electricity tariff that will cost 10% more than its standard rates but which offers better green credentials than any other consumer utility tariff in the UK market. The product has the following important features:

  • The electricity is derived from renewable sources. The company says that this is not the key ingredient of the tariff. Later in this note I try to explain why.
  • British Gas will buy and retire Renewable Energy Certificates for 12% of the electricity it supplies. This is probably the most important aspect of the proposition.
  • British Gas will 'offset' all of the carbon dioxide produced as a result of each household's purchases. This is the most expensive part of the deal for British Gas.
  • There will be a small donation to a green education fund for schools.

BG says that it makes no extra money from the sale of its Zero Carbon product. This looks a justifiable statement to us. The important other questions to ask are:

  • Why did BG decide that 10% was the appropriate premium to its main tariff? It could have designed a less costly offering with reasonably strong green features. Do mainstream 'concerned consumers' regard 10% as an acceptable price increment? Did BG need to 'gold plate' the new product to avoid any criticism that it was a proper green tariff?
  • How will the company manage to ensure that it buys high quality offsets, and not the dubious offerings sold by consumer offsetting companies?
  • The product is slightly complex and difficult to explain. Can BG cut through the competing claims of other green suppliers to build a large customer base for this high quality offering?
Read More

Tyndall Centre report on aviation and emissions trading

In early September, researchers from the Tyndall Centre in the UK put out a report that said that incorporation of the airline industry into the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) will not provide significant incentive to cut emissions. The big polluters today are paying about €20 per tonne for their emissions. When aviation joins the scheme in 2012, this price would add about €5 for a flight to Barcelona. Tyndall argues that the EU and national governments cannot escape the conclusion that the ETS is not enough and that aviation must be constrained by other fiscal or legislative measures as well as by inclusion in the carbon tax net. Tyndall has acquired an excellent reputation for its informed and passionate stance on aviation. Broadly speaking, its view has been that continued expansion of aviation is incompatible with the tight emissions targets that the EU and other bodies have set for the years to mid-century. It has consistently said that by 2050 unconstrained air travel will be using up most of the total carbon emissions that the world can allow itself. Aviation expansion will drown out emissions reductions in other areas.

Read More

Is organic food better for the climate?

The evidence is not quite clear enough that organic food is better for the atmosphere. The debate on whether organic agriculture reduces greenhouse gas emissions is a lively and sometimes acrimonious affair. The calculations are complex, the results depend on myriad factors that are difficult to quantify, and much research remains to be done. Those who give unequivocal answers to the question 'is organic better?' may not be recognising the extraordinary uncertainty that still surrounds many aspects of agriculture. Rather than produce a simple answer, this note offers a statement of the competing cases.

This topic has been widely researched but has produced very varying answers. There is certainly no consensus. In general, organic farming seems to be slightly better for the atmosphere than conventional cultivation, but for every ten studies that say this, five say something different. Almost all the conclusions are the subject of passionate debate.

Read More

E.ON's new wood-burning power stations

Do dedicated biomass electricity generating plants make financial sense? E.ON UK has recently announced a plan to build a second power station using 100% energy crops as fuel. The first investment – a £90m power plant at Lockerbie in Scotland – will open within the next few months. The second plant, still only in the planning stage, will be in Sheffield on the site of a previous generating station. Both power plants will use wood from forestry and specially planted willow but Sheffield will also burn waste wood from other sources, such as industrial pallets. These are the first two large-scale plants in the UK if we exclude the ill-fated Arbre plant of several years ago. (Arbre was an extremely advanced wood chip gasification plant built in Yorkshire. It was never fully commissioned.)

By the standards of the electricity industry, the E.ON investments are tiny. The proposed Sheffield plant has a price tag of £44m compared to £1bn for E.ON's intended investment in the new super-critical low(ish) emissions coal power plant at Kingsnorth in Kent. Nevertheless, Lockerbie and Sheffield do appear to make good financial sense, at least in part because of the revisions to the renewable energy subsidy scheme announced in the government's June 2007 Energy White Paper.

This article looks at the prospective financial return from operating a power plant burning wood and other energy crops.

Read More

HSBC's international opinion survey into climate change

The key conclusions from a good piece of market research HSBC's July 2007 survey entitled the Climate Confidence Index contained many surprising results. Carried out in nine major countries around the world, it showed that concern about climate change is far higher in developing countries than in the UK or the USA. As importantly, the inhabitants in these countries also think that the world is more likely to find ways to avert climate change problems.

Almost 60% of people in Brazil, Mexico and India see global warming as one of the most pressing problems the world faces, compared to little more than 20% in the UK. Broadly speaking, the richer countries tend to see terrorism as a bigger threat to the world than climate change. In all nine nations bar the US, the level of concern tends to rise quite sharply with age. (This result is also seen in most other surveys of UK opinion.)

Confidence that climate change will be successfully addressed by existing institutions is low in most places around the world. It falls to its lowest level (5%) in the UK. The UK also has the lowest level of people saying that they personally are making a significant effort to reduce climate change at 19%, compared to levels above 40% in developing countries. Fatalistic Britons are also almost the most pessimistic about whether global warming will be stopped, with only 6% of people saying 'I believe we will stop climate change,' compared to 45% in India and 39% in China.

Read More

Science news: Greenland's melting ice

The glacier at Ilulassit in Western Greenland Photo: the glacier at Ilulassit in Western Greenland

In early September, leaders from the major faiths came together in Greenland to pray for the future of the planet. They may well have chosen Greenland because of the visible and deeply worrying changes in the glaciers and ice fields that cover almost all its vast area. The melting of the ice sheet has speeded up dramatically since 2000.

The state of Greenland's glaciers is critical to the rate of global sea level rise. A complete melting of the island's ice would raise water levels by about 7 metres, enough to flood much of the world's inhabited land. To give one example, 15% of Bangladesh's population would be displaced by a rise of just 1.5 metres. Almost all the country's habitable land would disappear if the water level rises by 7m.

The religious leaders went to the town of Ilulissat on Greenland's western coast. Here a rapidly retreating glacier calves icebergs into a fjord at a rate of 35bn tonnes of water a year. The daily water loss would provide all the water London or New York needs for a year. Estimates suggest that between 6.5% and 10% of all the ice flowing off the interior icefields of Greenland melts into this fjord. This means that the increase in the rate of melt of this one glacier is adding about 0.06mm a year to the global sea level, 4% of the rate of rise during the 20th century.

Read More

The rise and rise of Climate Care

Drawing: the Indian treadle pump backed by Climate Care

Climate Care, the leading UK carbon offset company, has had an eventful few weeks. A few days after receiving an unexpected visit from climate activists who presented management with a basket of red herrings, the company put out a press release claiming that it would offset 1% of the UK's total carbon emissions next year. In sixty projects around the third world, Climate Care claims that it will reduce emissions in 2008 by 6m tonnes, or ten times as much as it has done this year. It is claiming spectacular growth rates. Continuous critical attention from newspapers and sceptical greens does not appear to have dented Climate Care's prospects one iota.

The core problems with offsetting are two-fold:

  • guaranteeing additionality (ensuring that the investments in carbon reduction wouldn't have happened anyway)
  • verifying the reductions.

Climate Care fails on both of these two important issues. Though Climate Care is getting increasingly tetchy with its critics, the blunt truth is that the company simply doesn't deliver genuine and quantifiable cuts in emissions. Increasingly, it works as an international development agency rather than as a business balancing one person's emissions with a reduction in another's. Climate Care may do a lot of good around the world, but it doesn't cut carbon dioxide emissions in a reliable or auditable way.

Read More